Is RNG out to get you?

It can feel like the game is against you—bad rolls, average catches, days when nothing triggers.

RNG isn't out to get you. It's just random. This guide explains why it feels unfair, why a great Pokémon is still the best bet for reliable production, and how to use that understanding when you decide what to keep or invest in.

Why we hunt

Every catch rolls three things at random: ingredient spread, subskills, and nature. The chance that all three line up in your favor on a single catch is low.

So most single catches will be average or below—that's statistics, not the game punishing you. The same randomness is what makes a "Great" or "Amazing" build feel special when it does appear.

A great Pokémon is most likely to perform its role well. In other words, it's the most RNG-averse—the one that, over time, gives you more consistent berries, ingredients, or skill triggers for that role.

RNG is still there, of course. Even a top-tier build can have a bad day. But that's exactly why we hunt: to find builds that are as reliable as the game allows, so that when variance hits, we're still in a better place.

Sample size

If you've only caught a few of a species, you haven't seen the full range of what's possible.

The more you catch—or the more you roll in NewRolly's Unlimited Biscuits—the more you see how often Great or Amazing shows up. One bad roll doesn't mean the next will be bad; each catch is independent.

Tools like NewRolly's Rollies can show you how many builds it typically takes to hit a tier you like, so you know what to expect.

Why your "bad" Pokémon might still be good

A "Bad" rating in NewRolly's Unlimited Biscuits is based on a general score at a breakpoint. But your team might need something specific—for example, a skill specialist for a certain week, or an ingredient type you're short on.

A build that scores "Okay" might still be your best option for that role right now. The tier is a guide for long-term investment viability—not for short-term or temporary role fulfilment.

Use it to inform your choice; don't let it override context.

Average vs what you actually get

Production numbers you see in guides or sims are usually averages. On any given day, what a Pokémon actually gives is random.

It's possible to get no berries and all ingredients, or all berries and no ingredients. It's just unlikely. Over many days it tends to even out toward the average, but you should not expect that average on a single day—or even over a short run of days.

The same goes for skills. A Pokémon might have an "average" skill trigger rate per day (e.g. once every few days). That doesn't mean it will trigger exactly that often on your island. Some days you'll get no triggers; other days you might get two or three. The average is a long-term picture, not a daily guarantee.

To see how much day-to-day production can swing—berries, ingredients, and skills—try NewRolly's Helpful Days. You can run many simulated days for a build and compare "average" output to the spread of actual results.

What to do

If you want to make the most of RNG and your catches:

• Use NewRolly's Unlimited Biscuits to see what strong and weak builds look like for a species.
• Use NewRolly's Rollies to see how many builds it typically takes to hit a tier you like.
• Check NewRolly's Rollies for a species so you know what to expect before you invest biscuits.
• Use NewRolly's Helpful Days to simulate many days and see how average production compares to real variance—berries, ingredients, and skill triggers.

Next: NewRolly's Unlimited Biscuits · NewRolly's Rollies · NewRolly's Helpful Days

Part of RNG & scoring